Post-9-11 events and analyses
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
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The coming dollar crisis:
Right on Steve. "In my view, we are about to be taught a lesson by a world that wants America to be tethered down. And the world is going to hit America where it has a serious blindspot at the moment -- on the economic front. We are on our way to becoming a much poorer, on relative terms, superpower with the Chinese, Japanese and Europeans using currency management and debt dependency to constrain our options.
The International Herald Tribune today ran a piece by Eric Pfanner today about the Russians possibly juggling their reserve currency portfolio and offsetting the dollar-denominated parts of their reserves by adding more euros.
American economists and central bankers seem to scoff at the notion of the U.S. dollar losing its reserve currency status. But in revolutionary times, when everything seems to be changing, these sorts of anachronistic attitudes about permanence seem to be very wrong-headed. What is clear is that the Euro has become increasingly important in global transactions, and its vector is pointed up. The dollar's vector is pointed down. We need to take stock of what that means -- and what it may mean is that the bad behaviors America has been able to get away with for so long in terms of piling up debt and maintaining an irresponsibly high current account deficit may soon be impossible to maintain." 8:21:43 AM
Jim Moore's looking next at China:
A policitical activist (Dean, Iraq, Sudan) considers another issue: "China's sphere of influence, and its support for governments that enslave their people and abuse human rights: Sudan is a Chinese client state--supplying oil to China. Burma is, as well. And you wonder how these nations thrive despite "international" sanctions? Because China--the world's fastest growing trading state--supports them.
And note that China is expanding its relationships in Southeast Asia, the Middle East ("hey, Saudis, if you don't want to be dependent on the US, how about hooking up with us, China?"), Africa, and South America.
This IS the new red tide. Not communism, this time, but genocidal, human rights abusing state capitalism write large. This is the new Chinese economic ecosystem, ecosphere. " 8:10:54 AM