Updated: 5/16/2006; 2:48:05 PM.

Current events
Post-9-11 events and analyses


daily link  Sunday, September 19, 2004


Don't rely on polls to pick this election: "The emergence of hot-button issues on the ballots of many swing states .. probably will draw droves of less-likely voters to the polls because these issues are powerful in terms of economic and cultural values. These people are largely disregarded by most pollsters because it's wastefully expensive and misleading to survey people who usually don't vote. But if they show up to vote in large numbers, they'll make many a poll prediction useless ..

[Also,] pollsters using phones can't reach many of the nation's 165 million cell-phone subscribers [because of FCC regulations.  Another] technological factor is that users of wired telephones screen out unwanted calls from pollsters and survey researchers with caller-ID and computer programs that filter out calls from any unrecognized phone number.

So, read the poll numbers for entertainment. Just don't rely on them for decision-making. "

  12:36:09 AM  permalink  

Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll: "the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. .. the Democrats have been 39% of the voting populace in both 1996 and 2000, and the GOP has not been higher than 35% in either of those elections. ..  Folks, unless Karl Rove can discourage the Democratic base into staying home in droves and gets the GOP to come out of the woodwork, there is no way in hell that these or any other Gallup Poll is to be taken seriously."  12:26:56 AM  permalink  

IT-led innovation in health care delivery:  Interesting story of how networked medical records and nurse follow-up improves results and cuts costs overall.  But, reimbursements are not worked out and result in doctors taking losses.  "When, as with the Whatcom County program, medical care is improved, and money saved, there are winners: in this case, insurers, including Medicare, which could save millions, and pharmaceutical companies. And there are losers: general practitioners and hospitals, with each doctor standing to lose at least $2,000 a year, according to projections, and some doctors reporting that their costs are already much higher.

The program is considered a model for how health care can be improved .. But participating in the program is costing each doctor in the group $500 a month for four years for the electronic medical record system. Other innovations, like group office visits and e-mailing with patients, are poorly compensated, if at all. Nor are the follow-up calls by a nurse checking on patients when a doctor changes a medication or recommends a different regimen.  "I've been in practice for 25 years and I've made less money this year than I ever did before," Dr. Safford said. But, she said, she will not return to her old ways when the county's grant ends this year and will accept less income if she has to. "We made the culture change and there's no going back," Dr. Safford said. "It changes everything. I look at this as a wonderful blessing."

  12:20:06 AM  permalink  

Electoral College Graph: A race driven by events.  12:03:14 AM  permalink  

 
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Copyright 2006 © Ken Novak.
Last update: 5/16/2006; 2:48:05 PM.