Post-9-11 events and analyses
Friday, January 09, 2004
Wishful Thinking on Korea
: More selective intelligence at work in the administration: "In the summer of 2002, insiders say, the U.S. had a defector report that Mr. Kim might soon be ousted. Experts on Korea were deeply skeptical about that unconfirmed report, but it matched what hard-liners wanted to believe, so they passed it all the way up to President Bush himself. That defector's report, later discredited, helped harden the administration's give-no-inch approach --leading Mr. Kim to begin reprocessing plutonium last year." 8:56:13 PM
Clark or Dean? How about both?
A progressive who thinks like I do -- the best ticket would be a Clark/Dean one, for all good reasons. He misses one -- the necessity to integrate the new Dean organization and energy in the party. 8:03:11 PM
The Australian: WMDs 'smuggled into Syria':
" Paris-based Syrian dissident Nijar Nijjof told Britain's independent Channel Five News that a senior Syrian military intelligence source had told him about the weapons. The unnamed source revealed that the weapons were smuggled across the Iraqi border in ambulances before the war that led to Saddam's ouster, Nijjof said. "I knew this man during the last two years, he sent me much information," Nijjof said of his contact.
"There hasn't been any hard evidence that such a thing happened," [Condoleezza Rice] told reporters, but "I can't dismiss anything that we haven't had an opportunity to fully assess". 5:33:10 PM
GBN's Peter Schwartz: "Most organizations and most people assume that the world in front of us is basically continuous -- that tomorrow is basically going to be pretty much like today," he said. In fact, the opposite is true: We live in a time of perpetual discontinuity, a time in which bombshells and shockers are part of everyday life." His 1999 "inevitable surprises" include:
- Most baby-boomers won't retire
- Tech-led productivity booms won't stop
- Nano tech and quantum computing will revolutionize science
- Cuts in pollution: "With the pace of technological change, high growth equals clean, low growth equals dirty."
- 3 kinds of countries:
- "Disorderly" countries where chaos and rebellion are rampant and information and financial flows are broken; this includes most of Africa, parts of Latin America, and big parts of Central Asia.
- "Orderly" countries that follow a system of rules designed for them not to fight with each other; this group comprises traditional industrialized regions like Europe, Japan, big parts of Latin America, most of China, and most of India.
- The United States, aka the rogue superpower. "We're the guys who make the rules but don't play by the rules," Peter explained. "We find ourselves in this unique position with a super-dominant economy and a super-dominant military, and no one can even come close to catching us. And nothing on the horizon suggests that's going to change."
Abrupt climate change, possibly slowing of the the Gulf Stream or other major change, even without global warming
European in-migration causing large cultural change there
Possibly interesting audio is on the site. 12:04:23 AM