|Ken Novak's Weblog
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Ken Novak's Weblog
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Bruce Sterling update:
Now calling his concept "cybergreens": "They're all about creating irresistible consumer demand for cool objects that will yield a global atmosphere upgrade. It's the Net vs. the 20th-century fossil order in a fight that the cybergreens are winning. Why? Because they're not about spiritual potential, human decency, small is beautiful, peace, justice or anything else unattainable. The cybergreens are about stuff people want, such as health, sex, glamour, hot products, awesome bandwidth, tech innovation and tons of money.
We're gonna glam, spend and consume our way into planetary survival. My own favorite sci-fi planetary-saving scheme
for naming, numbering and linking to the Internet every piece of junk we create so that it can be corralled and briskly recycled, creating a cradle-to-cradle postindustrial order and averting planetary doom, may sound pretty shocking and alien. But I wrote that book while in residency at a famous design school. I received an honorary doctorate there and the book was published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It gets great reviews, designers love it. It's not even science fiction -- it's a cybergreen manifesto.
In 1998, I had it figured that the dot-com boom would become a dot-green boom. It took a while for others to get it. Some still don't. They think I'm joking. They are still used to thinking of greenness as being "counter" and "alternative" -- they don't understand that 21st-century green is and must be about everything -- the works. Sustainability is comprehensive. That which is not sustainable doesn't go on. Glamorous green." 11:15:08 PM
Friday, March 23, 2007
Reverse Foreign Aid:
Important issues with incomplete explanation. "According to the United Nations, in 2006 the net transfer of capital from poorer countries to rich ones was $784 billion
, up from $229 billion in 2002. (In 1997, the balance was even.)" Reasons:
- Since 1990, the world’s nonrich nations have increased their reserves, on average, from around three months’ worth of imports to more than eight months’ worth — or the equivalent of about 30 percent of their G.D.P. China and other countries maintain those reserves mainly in the form of supersecure U.S. Treasury bills.. But the problem is that T-bills earn low returns. All the money spent on T-bills — a very substantial sum — could be earning far better returns invested elsewhere, or could be used to pay teachers and build highways at home, activities that bring returns of a different type. Dani Rodrik, an economist at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, estimates conservatively that maintaining reserves in excess of the three-month standard costs poor countries 1 percent of their economies annually — some $110 billion every year. Joseph Stiglitz, the Columbia University economist, says he thinks the real cost could be double that.
- As poorer countries enter the W.T.O., they must agree to pay royalties on [intellectual property] — and a result is a net obligation of more than $40 billion annually that poorer countries owe to American and European corporations.
- The hypercompetition for global investment has produced another important reverse subsidy: the tax holidays poor countries offer foreign investors... Since deals between corporations and governments are usually secret, it is hard to know how much investment incentives cost poorer countries — certainly tens of billions of dollars. Whatever the cost, it is growing, as country after country has passed laws enabling the offer of such incentives.
- The migration of highly educated people from poor nations is increasing. A small brain drain can benefit the South, as emigrants send money home and may return with new skills and capital. But in places where educated people are few and emigrants don’t go home again, the brain drain devastates. .. The financial consequences for the poorer nations can be severe. A doctor who moves from Johannesburg to North Dakota costs the South African government as much as $100,000, the price of training him there. ..
- Most costly to poor countries, they have been drafted into paying for rich nations’ energy use. On a per capita basis, Americans .. create more global warming — than anyone else. .. American energy use is being subsidized by tropical coastal nations, who appear to be global warming’s first victims."
Reasons 1-3 add up to less than $300B of today's $784B. Reason 4 has been happening ever since decolonization, and is substantially offset by remittances from the migrant home. Reason 5 is not monetized today. So the substantial majority of the amount is unexplained -- esp by comparison to 2002, when it was one third the size. What changed so drastically? Does this figure include China's net exports, and their policy of incredibly high foreign exchange holdings, inflating the entire issue? 7:33:20 AM
Thursday, March 22, 2007
IDC: Server shipments slow on spread of virtualization:
"Growth in the x86 server market revved slightly in Q4 2006, growing 7.0% in the quarter to $7.2 billion worldwide, its fastest growth rate in five quarters, but unit shipment growth continued to moderate with growth at 1.1% year over year, to 1.85 million servers as customers continued to consolidate their IT infrastructures, .. "For the first time in more than 10 years, average selling values in the quarter increased year over year as IT managers move to consolidate IT workloads. This shift toward a shared compute infrastructure is driving additional scalability, memory attachment and I/O needs, which in turn, lead to higher average selling values." ..
Microsoft Windows servers .. revenue grew 9.4% and unit shipments grew 5.1% year over year. Quarterly revenue of $5.3 billion for Windows servers represented 34.9% of overall quarterly factory revenue, the single largest revenue segment in the server market, IDC reported.
After two consecutive quarters of single-digit revenue growth, Linux server revenue growth accelerated once again, growing 15.3% to $1.8 billion when compared with Q4 2005. Linux servers now represent 11.9% of all server revenue, up more than one point over Q4 2005. But Linux server shipments declined 0.8% year over year after 18 quarters of double-digit shipment growth, as IT consolidation extends its reach into the open source domain...
Unix servers experienced 2.8% revenue growth year over year when compared with Q4 2006. Worldwide Unix revenues were $5.1 billion for the quarter, representing 33.5% of quarterly server spending." Itanium, z/OS and blades sold about $3.5B combined." 10:38:40 PM
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
RPS outside the US:
"- China will increase its use of renewables as part of a national plan to combat climate change, says the country’s environment minister Xie Zhenhua. .. he says the Chinese government will announce a national plan with concrete targets to improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2010 and to increase the proportion of renewables to 10%.
- Taiwan Power will spend NT$3.6 billion to install solar panels .. Taiwan imports 98% of its energy and the government wants renewables to generate 12% by 2025. .. The government owns 97% of Taipower, which generates three-quarters of the island’s electricity.
- The World Wind Energy Agency has welcomed the decision by the European Union to increase the continent’s share of renewables to 20% by 2020." 7:58:26 AM
Texas Bid Could be First U.S. Offshore Wind Farm:
"Jerry Patterson, Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office, announced that the state has signed an agreement to allow an offshore wind-energy project in the United States to be built off Galveston Island. .. [Work begins immediately on] towers [to] gather data to determine exactly where the 150 MW wind energy development will be built on an 11,355-acre lease about seven miles off the coast of Galveston Island. ..
there is only one entity in Texas for an offshore wind developer to deal with -- the Texas General Land Office, according to the developers. Also, development within the 10.36 miles offers proximity to the state's electrical grid to carry wind-generated power to customers. Coastal winds also tend to rise during the day when the state's electrical generating capacity faces peak demand, therefore generating power when it's most needed. Plus, the gentle slope of the Texas Gulf Coast makes the development of an offshore wind farm easy. ..
Once the research is complete, the second phase of the lease -- the construction phase -- will begin. Construction is expected to cost as much as $300 million and could take as long as five years. W.E.S.T. plans to build a field of about 50 wind turbines to produce an expected 150 MW. The hub of each turbine will rise 260 feet above sea level. The turbine blades will be up to 55 yards long .. " Production is expected to last 30 years. 7:56:15 AM
South Africa: Cape green power plans:
"Eskom, local authorities and the private sector are set to launch renewable energy projects that will add at least 350 megawatts of electricity to the national energy grid. The Western Cape uses around 4 000MW of electricity daily, while the entire country uses around 34 000MW, which can go up to 40 000MW at peak demand [somewhat less than California]. In the recent past there have been regular power outages as Eskom battles to meet the growing demand for electricity.
The planned renewable energy projects include two 100MW wind
farms on the West Coast, a 100MW solar thermal
plant in the Northern Cape and a 50MW solar thermal
plant on the West Coast. .. The department is keen to launch projects that will ensure that 15 percent of the region's electricity needs will be met by clean and renewable sources by 2015."
Meanwhile the giant projects being coming online today
are not so green; coal dwarfs them all: "The two Western Cape liquid-fuel open-cycle gas turbine stations would collectively add another 1050 megaWatts of power to the national grid. Ingula Power Station .. will be a pump-storage hydro-electric scheme, with a generating capacity of 1330 mW. .. The 4200 mW coal
-fired power station in Lephalele would be named Medupi, meaning "the name that soaks parched land"." 7:41:23 AM
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Friday, March 16, 2007
The Globus Consortium Journal
: Overview of Virtualization Technology in Distributed Computing workshop. "Among the highlights was an interesting paper from Intel dissecting the
performance of Xen networking. A wonderful adoption scenario was
represented in the work from the University of Marburg where
suspend/resume properties of VMs are being used to improve backfill
strategies in the local scheduler - computations running in VMs are
simply suspended when a large parallel job is scheduled to run and
resumed afterwards. The remarkable part of this work was that it was
very much requirement-driven and has been voted into production by
users. Another interesting talk came from the Australian Partnership
for Advanced Computing (APAC) described their experiences using virtual
machines in production Grids for a couple of years now." 11:20:49 PM
Start-Up Fervor Shifts to Energy in Silicon Valley:
Yet more coverage of the boomlet that started in 2001. "Out of the ashes of the Internet bust, many technology veterans have regrouped and found a new mission in alternative energy: developing wind power, solar panels, ethanol plants and hydrogen-powered cars. It is no secret that venture capitalists have begun pouring billions into energy-related start-ups with names like SunPower, Nanosolar and Lilliputian Systems. But that interest is now spilling over to many others in Silicon Valley — lawyers, accountants, recruiters and publicists, all developing energy-oriented practices to cater to the cause. ..
the Valley has always run in cycles. It is a kind of renewable gold rush, a wealth- and technology-creating principle that is always looking for something around which to organize." 10:16:13 PM
Transmission Access For Renewable Energy:
Important regulatory innovations go national. " The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) adopted a new regulation on February 15th that aims to allow greater access to transmission lines for power generators of all types, including renewable energy projects. The new rule exempts intermittent power generators, such as wind power plants, from excessive "imbalance" charges when the amount of energy they deliver is different than the amount of energy they are scheduled to deliver. To help accommodate less-predictable forms of renewable power generation, the rule creates a "conditional firm" service to deliver power from a generator to a customer, allowing the power supplier to provide firm service for most, but not all, hours in the requested time period. A key aspect of the new rule is that it eliminates the broad discretion that transmission providers currently possess in calculating the unused, available capacity on their transmission lines. ..
The California ISO has also asked FERC to approve an innovative financing vehicle for new transmission lines, allowing utilities to invest in a transmission line and then having renewable generators pay for the line as they use it." 3:27:12 PM
Fats Into Jet Fuel:
"New biofuels technology developed by North Carolina State University engineers has the potential to turn virtually any fat source – vegetable oils, oils from animal fat and even oils from algae – into fuel to power jet airplanes. .. [It] can also be used to make additives for cold-weather biodiesel fuels and holds the potential to fuel automobiles that currently run on gasoline. ..
“We can take virtually any lipid-based feedstock, or raw material with a fat source – including what is perceived as low-quality feedstock like cooking grease – and turn it into virtually any fuel,” [professor] Roberts says. “Using low-quality feedstock is typically 30 percent less costly than using corn or canola oils to make fuel. And we’re not competing directly with the food supply, like ethanol-based fuels that are made from corn.” .. Converting feedstock into fuel produces a low-value commodity – glycerol – as a by-product. Rather than discarding glycerol as waste like most biodiesel plants do, the NC State engineers’ process burns glycerol cleanly and efficiently to provide some of the process’ requisite high temperatures. ..
The physical and chemical properties of traditional biodiesel fuels – their combustion characteristics and viscosity, for example – don’t match the stringent requirements of jet fuel....
First, the engineers use high temperatures and high water pressure to strip off the so-called free fatty acids from the accumulated feedstock of oils and fats, or triglycerides. Next, the engineers place the free fatty acids in a reactor to perform the decarboxylation step; that is, carbon dioxide is taken off the free fatty acids. Depending on the feedstock used, the scientists are left with alkanes, or straight-chain hydrocarbons of either 15 or 17 carbon atoms. “After these first two steps, which are always the same no matter which fuel you want, we can make any fuel we want to make,” Roberts says. “In the last two steps, we can change the recipe based on the fuel output desired.”
In the last two steps, the engineers break up the straight chains into molecules with branches, making them more compact and changing their chemical and physical characteristics. Jet fuel and biodiesel fuel require a mixture of molecules with between 10 and 14 carbon atoms, while gasoline requires only eight carbon atoms, so the engineers can control the process to elicit exactly the type of fuel they desire.
“We produce one-and-a-half billion gallons of animal fats annually, which is about half of the amount of vegetable oil produced yearly,” Roberts said. “Animal fats are harder to work with, but cheaper. Last year, for the first time ever, fuel costs in the aviation industry exceeded labor costs. We think the aviation industry is keen on finding alternatives to petroleum-based jet fuel.”" 3:23:15 PM
"Researchers at MIT have designed a rechargeable lithium-ion battery
that assembles itself out of microscopic materials. This could lead to
ultrasmall power sources for sensors and micromachines the size of the
head of a pin. It could also make it possible to pack battery materials
in unused space inside electronic devices." Earlier related story: Batteries That Assemble Themselves
"Biology may be the key to producing light-weight, inexpensive, and
high-performance batteries that could transform military uniforms into
power sources and, eventually, improve electric and hybrid vehicles.
Angela Belcher, an MIT professor of biological engineering and
materials science, and two colleagues, materials science professor
Yet-Ming Chiang and chemical engineering professor Paula Hammond, have
engineered viruses to assemble battery components that can store three
times as much energy as traditional materials by packing highly ordered
materials into a very small space." 3:08:44 PM
Researchers convert heat to electricity using organic molecules:
"Arun Majumdar, UC Berkeley professor of mechanical engineering was principal investigator of the study.. [His team] successfully generated electricity from heat by trapping organic molecules between metal nanoparticles, an achievement that could pave the way toward the development of a new source for energy." While it's a long way from marketable form, it would have implications for energy, nanomaterials, and sensors (which need small amounts of energy to function). 3:03:52 PM
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Global Clean Energy Market Report:
From Clean Edge and Nth Power. "Global clean-energy markets are poised to quadruple in the next decade, growing from $55.4 billion in revenues in 2006 to more than $226.5 billion by 2016." Charts
and summary report
online, with numerous references. Highlights:
- "the global biofuels market was slightly larger than both solar and wind, reaching $20.5 billion in 2006 and projected to grow to more than $80 billion by 2016. Clean Edge projects solar photovoltaics (modules, system components, and installations) will grow from a $15.6 billion market in 2006 to $69.3 billion by 2016; wind power installations will expand from $17.9 billion in 2006 to $60.8 billion in 2016; and the markets for fuel cells and distributed hydrogen will grow from $1.4 billion in 2006 to $15.6 billion over the next decade."
- "VC investments in energy-tech start- ups rose 262 percent to $2.4 billion in 2006. These investments, primarily in transportation and fuels, distributed energy, energy intelligence, and power reliability, eclipsed the previous high- water mark set in 2000 for energy-tech investing by more than $1 billion. The figures represent 9.4 percent of total US venture capital investments in 2006. "
- 5 trends are highlighted:
- Carbon Finally Has a Price…and a Market
- Biorefineries Begin to Close the Loop
- Advanced Battery Makers Take Charge
- Wal-Mart Becomes a Clean-Energy Market Maker
- Utilities Get Enlightened
- Energy intelligence -- using IT for efficiency -- is a category that Nth Power has targeted for some time. They report increases in investments from $192m in 2004 to $272m in 2005 to $476 in 2006 (of which $178m was for broadband over power investments).
Monday, March 12, 2007
Coltan and Your Mobile:
Disturbing effect of a key electronic material on the ongoing disaster in the Congo. "Columbite-tantalite (from here on referred to as Coltan). On its own it looks and feels like a very fertile soil, but when refined you get a highly heat-resistant metal powder called tantalum. Once refined, coltan has myriad uses, all of which pertain to its particular properties of being a dense mineral with the ability to withstand high temperatures and stress.To the high-tech industry this tantalum is a magic dust that is essential in making computer chips, stereo’s, VCR and DVD players and mobile phones. As such, coltan derivatives are used as capacitors in devices such as mobile phones and even complex missile guidance systems. ..
Coltan is mined by hand in the Congo by groups of men digging basins in streams by scrapping off the surface mud. They then “slosh” the water around the crater, which causes the Coltan ore to settle to the bottom of the crater where it is retrieved by the miners...
While a fair majority of the worlds tantalum supply comes from legitimate mining operations in Australia, Canada and Brazil the recent demand for tantalum has caused a more sinister market to begin flourishing in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where 80% of the world’s known coltan supply is subject to “highly organized and systematic exploitation.” There, warring rebel groups - many funded and supplied by neighboring Rwanda and Uganda - are exploiting coltan mining in the Eastern DRC to help finance political and human oppression, child enslavement, torture and war. The mining area is also within one of the main ranges of the threatened Eastern Lowland Gorilla .. In April of 2001 the United Nations issued a report on the rape of resources from the DRC. In their findings field investigators reported that Rwandan, Ugandan and Burundian rebels had looted and smuggled thousands of tons of coltan from the Congo into their countries to export to the global market, using the profits to finance their militias. ..Coltan smuggling has also been implicated as a major source of income for the military occupation of Congo which is also linked to forced child enlisting, rape and the rampant spread of HIV. ..
Manufacturers rely on their “suppliers” which are Tantalum capacitor makers like Kemet of Greenville, S.C., the world’s largest tantalum capacitor maker and on the companies trading the minerals. .. some 80 percent of the worlds Coltan comes from the DRC and most of that passes through several black market hands before its finally delivered to the refineries it what appears to be legitimate means." 7:34:46 AM
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Altairnano power play:
I wonder if this battery is for real. "Altairnano - a relatively small public company [claims to produce] a battery that could power an electric vehicle
hundreds of miles, charge in 10 minutes, and have a service life of 20
years or more.. The secret, according to Gotcher, is nanotechnology, and
Altairnano's selection of nano-structured lithium titanate as a
framework for its battery, branded NanoSafe™. Because the storage
compartments are so small, the battery can store a lot of lithium ions.
And the titanate material used in the nanostructures enhances battery
cycle life, and gives it an extraordinary service life, he said., [claiming] more than 20,000 cycles with
little performance degradation, .. Altairnano says its batteries have been tested under
extreme conditions, including an operating temperature range of -50 to
plus 71 degrees Celsius. ..
battery pack can be charged at low voltage over long times, or charged
at higher voltages quicker, Gotcher said. In a 10 minute or less
charge, at least 480 volts at several hundred amps will be required,
transferring 210 kW/h of energy to the battery pack. .. How would service stations of the future store the mammoth amounts
of electricity required by electric vehicles? Altairnano's Gotcher says
the company "hasn't really said a lot about that yet, but you'll see us
come forward with information in the second quarter."
Related news: Power company AES made a $3 million "strategic investment" buying 1.5% of Altairnano's stock. ZAP is building a Tesla-like roadster with its batteries. So is Phoenix Motorcars, which has contracted to deliver 200 utility trucks with these batteries to PG&E in June 2007: "Phoenix’s SUT can travel at freeway-speeds while
carrying five passengers and a full payload, the company claimed. The
SUT has a driving range of over 100 miles, can be recharged in less
than 10 minutes and has a battery pack with a lifespan of more than 12
years." 12:03:14 AM
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Adam Smith turns green:
Nice short statement that many friends of mine could make. "We investors and entrepreneurs in the cleantech world have a guilty conscience. People often ask us, “Are you motivated by the money or by the mission?” It’s become unfashionable and a little shameful to say you’re driven by anything but profit, but I’m not afraid to say I’m a clean energy investor because of my values. ..
I looked at the energy marketplace and what was happening with new technologies .. It felt like the revolutionary zeal that I and other entrepreneurs had for the internet in the early days. And when we were asked, “are you in this to make money or change the world?” Of course we wanted to change the world! Making money was just validation that it worked. Virtually every early internet entrepreneur I knew recognized the opportunity to change the world for the better by growing the Net. It wasn’t until many years later that the hordes of profit-only entrepreneurs came to the scene. Indeed, if you want a sign of over-investment in cleantech, look for an invasion of founders and CEOs who are in it only for the money." 12:29:32 PM
Monday, March 05, 2007
Oil Innovations Pump New Life Into Old Wells: Update on technologies for recovering the 2/3 of oil that conventional drilling leaves in the ground. A theme covered in depth in the January 2001 Atlantic. Bottom lines for me is that I don't believe we're close to peak oil as long as oil prices rise to pay for technology; and that $50 per barrel can fund a lot of secondary recovery technology to keep oil flowing. Oil use should be cut for environmental and security reasons; economics and resource availability reasons will not help. 11:30:26 AM