|Ken Novak's Weblog
Purpose of this blog: to retain annotated bookmarks for my future reference, and to offer others my filter technology and other news. Note that this blog is categorized. Use the category links to find items that match your interests.
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Monday, March 07, 2005
The Sharecropper Society: Excerpts from Berkshire Hathaway's annual report. "Berkshire owned about $21.4 billion of foreign exchange contracts at year end [i.e. 2004], spread among 12 currencies. As I mentioned last year, holdings of this kind are a decided change for us. .. The decline in [the dollar's] value has already been substantial, but is nevertheless likely to continue. ..
other countries and their citizens now own a net of about $3 trillion of the U.S. A decade ago their net ownership was negligible .. Should we continue to run current account deficits comparable to those now prevailing, the net ownership of the U.S. by other countries and their citizens a decade from now will amount to roughly $11 trillion. And, if foreign investors were to earn only 5% on that net holding, we would need to send a net of $.55 trillion of goods and services abroad every year merely to service the U.S. investments then held by foreigners. At that date, a decade out, our GDP would probably total about $18 trillion [sot the US] would then be delivering 3% of its annual output to the rest of the world simply as tribute for the overindulgences of the past. .. A country that is now aspiring to an “Ownership Society” will not find happiness in -– and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis -– a “Sharecropper’s Society.” " 2:59:01 PM
"TiVo for radio? You bet! Just like TiVo, you can listen, pause, fast forward, or move radio as MP3 files with RadioTime software. Listen to your favorite programs --anytime, anywhere. Record one airing or every broadcast of your favorite programs." Wonder if it has made peace with the RIAA? 12:49:41 PM
frontline: high stakes in cyberspace: Paul Saffo in 1995 on PBS: Fun to read the old stuff. Paul Saffo is remarkably on-target, 10 years later. This article mentions "macro-myopia: A pattern where our hopes and our expectations or our fears about the threatened impact of some new technology causes us to overestimate its short term impacts and reality always fails to meet those inflated expectations. And as a result our disappointment then leads us to turn around and underestimate the long term implications and I can guarantee you this time will be no different. The short term impact of this stuff will be less than the hype would suggest but the long term implications will be vastly larger than we can possibly imagine today." I've since encoutered Gartner's Hype Cycle, which they say they started to use also in 1995, with a graphic version of this insight.
I found this when looking for a reference to an aphorism that I think comes from Saffo. The aphorism: Over two years, things change much less than we think they will; but over ten years, they change more than we imagine.
It makes me wonder about the timeframe in between, say 5 to 7 years in the future, when major impacts will be felt from things we know are changing now, despite hype (digital sensors and surveillance) and disillusion (wind and solar power). 12:45:30 PM
BrightPlanet - Deep Query Manager:
Enterprise software to search online data bases and combine the results. Emphasis is on the "deep web" that is inaccessible to search engines. They claim preconfiguration to 70,000 online databases and specialty search engines, extendible to include in-house databases, with a tool to automatically select the relevant engines for a query if desired. One package component does tracking, executing stored queries at intervals and reporting new results. 9:47:24 AM